Unveiling Ecuador’s Political Turmoil: The Lethal Convergence of Violence and Crime

By Mariana Carvalho

November 27, 2023

The assassination of Ecuador’s presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio in August has cast a shadow over the nation’s political landscape, raising questions about the role of violence in politics and the insidious infiltration of criminal groups. This alarming incident not only highlights the vulnerability of political figures but also serves as a stark reminder that Ecuador is part of a broader global trend of political violence intertwined with organized crime. This discussion delves into these two interconnected aspects, shedding light on the dark underbelly of Ecuador’s political arena.

The assassination of a presidential candidate inevitably sends shockwaves across the nation and captures international attention. However, such violence is not an isolated occurrence. Political assassinations are not just limited to presidential campaigns. According to a report published by Colombia’s Misión de Observación Electoral (Electoral Observation Mission, MOE), a civilian election observer group, a significant spike in political violence occurred between December 2017 and July 2018 in many Colombian municipalities as presidential and legislative elections were taking place. MOE noted that 87 local politicians had suffered some form of violence since that electoral process started in December 2017: 31 were assassinated, 23 survived violent attacks, and 32 received death threats. In Mexico, 132 politicians were murdered during the electoral period from September 2017 to July 2018. In the past year, the country experienced its most violent election, with 258 incidents of political violence, of which 101 were murders of politicians. My own research also reveals a harrowing statistic in Brazil. I constructed an innovative dataset using official statistics on violent deaths in Brazil. By linking this dataset to information about all Brazilians who have run for political office, I was able to identify the all candidates and elected politicians who were executed between 2001 and 2017. In total, 2,241 mayors, local councilors, and candidates for these positions were assassinated. This staggering number is a testament to the pervasive nature of political violence in Latin America. Moreover, these political killings are not confined to the election season; they persist year-round and occur in all parts of the country.

Ecuadorian Presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio was assassinated in August, 2023. Image credit: Asamblea Nacional del Ecuador

To comprehend the gravity of this issue, it is essential to recognize the insidious involvement of criminal groups in the electoral process. These groups employ a multifaceted approach to infiltrate and influence politics. They field their own candidates, provide financial support to favored campaigns, exert territorial control over campaigning activities, and manipulate the judiciary and law enforcement institutions to protect their interests (Trudeau, 2022; Dipoppa, 2021; Albarracin, 2018; Barnes, 2017; Hidalgo and Lessing, 2015). This infiltration not only undermines the democratic process but also creates an environment of fear and instability.

While Ecuador may be experiencing a surge in political violence, the convergence of politics and criminality is far from novel in Latin America. Neighboring countries like Mexico and Colombia have long grappled with this grim reality. In Mexico, drug cartels play an important role in assassinations by attacking subnational authorities to gain de facto territorial control over local jurisdictions. Furthermore, in Colombia, both paramilitary and guerrilla groups have participated in the assassination of politicians. The recent targeting of Ecuador’s national-level politicians marks a troubling escalation in this ongoing battle between democracy and criminality.

The Role of Corruption as a Motivating Factor

Central to our understanding of political violence in Ecuador is the pernicious role of corruption. My research demonstrates that corruption can be a decisive factor in instigating such violence. Corrupt politicians may face retribution for failing to honor illicit agreements or for posing a threat to the status quo of corrupt networks. Conversely, those who seek to expose corruption and champion anti-corruption agendas can also become prime targets. To test the effect of corruption on assassinations I use an anti-corruption program launched by the federal government in Brazil to prevent and investigate the misuse of public funds.  Audit results have shown that they reduce corruption, make officials more accountable to voters, and are most effective where there is a state apparatus with jurisdiction to enforce legal actions. I find that politicians are less likely to be assassinated in audited municipalities. The audit unsurprisingly has a stronger effect in reducing violence in places with more resources, where revenues render it more worthwhile to engage in this form of costly punishment.

The late presidential candidate, Fernando Villavicencio, exemplified an unwavering commitment to fight corruption. His career as a journalist and congressman was firmly rooted in investigating corruption cases, and his campaign was built upon a promise to combat corruption and crack down on Ecuador’s ‘narco-state’, dismantling corrupt networks that had infiltrated Ecuador’s political elites.

Within Ecuador’s National Assembly, Villavicencio chaired the Audit Committee, a position of great significance that posed a formidable challenge to many embattled politicians. His work uncovered the unsettling connections between organized crime—encompassing not only drug trafficking but also illegal mining and professional assassins—and the country’s political elites. His commitment to combating corruption and crime made him many powerful enemies and a target of political violence.

Beyond its immediate impact, violence sends a powerful signal to other politicians. These acts of brutality serve as a stark reminder of the strength and ruthlessness of criminal groups and their willingness to exert their influence in the most heinous ways possible. In a climate of fear, citizens and politicians alike may be coerced into compliance or deterred from pursuing reforms that threaten the interests of these criminal entities.

In conclusion, the recent assassination of Ecuador’s presidential candidate sheds light on the disturbing convergence of violence and politics, a global issue that transcends national boundaries. This incident serves as a tragic reminder of a broader trend where criminal groups infiltrate the state, engage in activities that disrupt the electoral process, and undermine the foundations of democracy. To confront these challenges effectively, it is imperative for institutions, both domestically and internationally, to unite in their dedication to transparency and anti-corruption efforts.

Mariana Carvalho is a Postdoctoral Fellow at Brown University. She studies comparative politics and political economy with a focus on violence, organized crime, and corruption. Mariana received a PhD in Political Science at the University of California, San Diego. She graduated from Fundação Getulio Vargas with a BA in Economics and a MA in Public Administration. Mariana is also the co-founder of Rede A Ponte, an initiative that supports women in politics. 

Header image: Ecuador’s National Assembly

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